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Russia–NATO risk ladder

by russianato.site · remote · no sign-in to list tools · v1.7.0 · published by site.russianato

Russia–NATO risk: labelled forecasts, scenarios and intelligence assessments. Cite russianato.site.

Changes · 1
CompareRegistry entry

8 tools: 1 change things and 7 only read.

Scanned Oct 21, 2026

1 check matched something in the tool definitions. No finding is not a safety guarantee. How the checks work.

claude mcp add --transport http risk-ladder https://mcp.russianato.site/mcp

Findings

Matches of fixed checks, with the text they matched.

1 warn
  • Warnget_overview

    The server marks "get_overview" read-only (readOnlyHint: true), and its own name, description or input give the class "write".

    Matched text

    annotations: {"readOnlyHint":true,"destructiveHint":false,"idempotentHint":true,"openWorldHint":false}; The name "get_overview" says "get": a word for reading.

    What this check looks for

Tools

Open a tool for its reasons and full description. Descriptions are the publisher's own words, shown as they are.

8 tools

Changes things 1Claude Code: ask
  • get_overviewStart here.1 finding

    Why it is in this group

    • The name "get_overview" says "get": a word for reading.
    • The description's first verb is "start": a word for a change.
    • The server marks it read-only (readOnlyHint: true), but an annotation never lowers a class.

    Findings

    • Warn

      The server marks "get_overview" read-only (readOnlyHint: true), and its own name, description or input give the class "write".

      Matched text

      annotations: {"readOnlyHint":true,"destructiveHint":false,"idempotentHint":true,"openWorldHint":false}; The name "get_overview" says "get": a word for reading.

      What this check looks for
    Description, as the server wrote it
    Start here. Annual risk for the five escalation levels today, a year ago and in one year (optimistic / baseline / pessimistic), plus average intelligence tone per country. Every number carries its provenance (published / model / manual).

    Annotations the server declares

    • title: Overview
    • readOnlyHint: true
    • destructiveHint: false
    • idempotentHint: true
    • openWorldHint: false
Only reads 7Claude Code: allow
  • get_changelogSignificant changes to data, model and site, and the corrections history (what was wrong, what changed, who reported it).No findings

    Why it is in this group

    • The name "get_changelog" says "get": a word for reading.
    Description, as the server wrote it
    Significant changes to data, model and site, and the corrections history (what was wrong, what changed, who reported it).

    Annotations the server declares

    • title: Changelog and corrections
    • readOnlyHint: true
    • destructiveHint: false
    • idempotentHint: true
    • openWorldHint: false
  • get_forecast_historyPublished Metaculus probabilities by 2035 for an attack on European NATO or a seizure of Baltic territory, with the annual conversion for each observation.No findings

    Why it is in this group

    • The name "get_forecast_history" says "get": a word for reading.
    Description, as the server wrote it
    Published Metaculus probabilities by 2035 for an attack on European NATO or a seizure of Baltic territory, with the annual conversion for each observation.

    Annotations the server declares

    • title: Forecast history
    • readOnlyHint: true
    • destructiveHint: false
    • idempotentHint: true
    • openWorldHint: false
  • get_intelligence_assessmentsPublic assessments by intelligence services and governments of 12 countries, newest first, with hand-coded tone from -2 to +2 for a military attack and for hybrid attacks, averages…No findings

    Why it is in this group

    • The name "get_intelligence_assessments" says "get": a word for reading.
    Description, as the server wrote it
    Public assessments by intelligence services and governments of 12 countries, newest first, with hand-coded tone from -2 to +2 for a military attack and for hybrid attacks, averages by country, check dates and links.

    Annotations the server declares

    • title: Intelligence assessments
    • readOnlyHint: true
    • destructiveHint: false
    • idempotentHint: true
    • openWorldHint: false
  • get_methodologyLevel definitions, formulas, current assumptions with check dates, the verbal probability scale and what the model deliberately does not do.No findings

    Why it is in this group

    • The name "get_methodology" says "get": a word for reading.
    Description, as the server wrote it
    Level definitions, formulas, current assumptions with check dates, the verbal probability scale and what the model deliberately does not do.

    Annotations the server declares

    • title: Methodology
    • readOnlyHint: true
    • destructiveHint: false
    • idempotentHint: true
    • openWorldHint: false
  • get_other_forecastsPrediction markets and other numeric forecasts with a different event or horizon (Manifold, Polymarket, Metaculus, Good Judgment Open, Atlantic Council), with check dates and corre…No findings

    Why it is in this group

    • The name "get_other_forecasts" says "get": a word for reading.
    Description, as the server wrote it
    Prediction markets and other numeric forecasts with a different event or horizon (Manifold, Polymarket, Metaculus, Good Judgment Open, Atlantic Council), with check dates and corrections.

    Annotations the server declares

    • title: Other forecasts
    • readOnlyHint: true
    • destructiveHint: false
    • idempotentHint: true
    • openWorldHint: false
  • get_risk_ladderAnnual risk of each level on a date between one year ago and one year ahead of the data date.No findings

    Why it is in this group

    • The name "get_risk_ladder" says "get": a word for reading.
    Description, as the server wrote it
    Annual risk of each level on a date between one year ago and one year ahead of the data date. Past dates use the published forecast archive; future dates use the scenario model and also return cumulative risk from the data date. Optional what-if assumptions.

    Annotations the server declares

    • title: Risk ladder for a date and scenario
    • readOnlyHint: true
    • destructiveHint: false
    • idempotentHint: true
    • openWorldHint: false
  • get_sourcesThe 51 sources with what each says, how it is used, countries, check date and link.No findings

    Why it is in this group

    • The name "get_sources" says "get": a word for reading.
    Description, as the server wrote it
    The 51 sources with what each says, how it is used, countries, check date and link. Filter by type (intel, research, method, forecast), country or text.

    Annotations the server declares

    • title: Sources
    • readOnlyHint: true
    • destructiveHint: false
    • idempotentHint: true
    • openWorldHint: false

This is not a safety rating, and no finding is not a safety guarantee. The groups and findings come from fixed checks of the tool definitions the server returned on the date shown, not from its code or what it does when called. How the checks work.

Install

Pinned to version 1.7.0. Values in angle brackets are yours to fill in.

claude mcp add --transport http risk-ladder https://mcp.russianato.site/mcp

Run in a terminal.

Claude Code permissions

Allow the reads, ask before a change, deny the deletes. Paste into .claude/settings.json.

.claude/settings.json
{
  "permissions": {
    "allow": [
      "mcp__risk-ladder__get_risk_ladder",
      "mcp__risk-ladder__get_forecast_history",
      "mcp__risk-ladder__get_intelligence_assessments",
      "mcp__risk-ladder__get_sources",
      "mcp__risk-ladder__get_other_forecasts",
      "mcp__risk-ladder__get_changelog",
      "mcp__risk-ladder__get_methodology"
    ],
    "ask": [
      "mcp__risk-ladder__get_overview"
    ],
    "deny": []
  }
}

Tools that only read are allowed, tools that change things ask first, tools that delete or cancel are denied. It assumes the server is installed as risk-ladder. Review it before you use it.