Weather Markets Edge Desk

by predictionmarketspicks.com · remote · no sign-in to list tools · v1.2.0 · published by com.predictionmarketspicks

Kalshi weather markets: daily-high board beside the NWS forecast, live edges, EV, Kelly, base rates.

Changes · 7

Compare Registry entry

7 tools: 7 change things.

Scanned Oct 21, 2026

Deletes or cancels0Claude Code: deny
Can't be undone0Claude Code: ask
Changes things7Claude Code: ask: see these tools
Only reads0Claude Code: allow

2 checks matched something in the tool definitions. No finding is not a safety guarantee. How the checks work.

claude mcp add --transport http weather https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry

Findings

Matches of fixed checks, with the text they matched.

2 warn

Warnconvert_probability
The server marks "convert_probability" read-only (readOnlyHint: true), and its own name, description or input give the class "write".
Matched text
annotations: {"readOnlyHint":true,"destructiveHint":false,"openWorldHint":false}; The name "convert_probability" says "convert": a word for a change.
What this check looks for
Warnbayes_update
The server marks "bayes_update" read-only (readOnlyHint: true), and its own name, description or input give the class "write".
Matched text
annotations: {"readOnlyHint":true,"destructiveHint":false,"openWorldHint":false}; The name "bayes_update" says "update": a word for a change.
What this check looks for

Tools

Open a tool for its reasons and full description. Descriptions are the publisher's own words, shown as they are.

7 tools

Changes things 7Creates or changes something that can be changed back.Claude Code: ask

base_rate_gapUse for "how does this price compare to history" and "is the market ignoring the base rate".No findings
Why it is in this group
- Nothing in its name or description says what it does, so it is counted as a write.
- The server marks it read-only (readOnlyHint: true), but an annotation never lowers a class.
Description, as the server wrote it
Use for "how does this price compare to history" and "is the market ignoring the base rate". Compares a market price with the historical base rate for a class of events: the gap in pp, a signal, and sample-size quality. Pass a known baseRateId (the parameter lists them) or your own baseRateValue.
Annotations the server declares
- readOnlyHint: true
- destructiveHint: false
- openWorldHint: false
- title: Base Rate Gap
bayes_updateUpdate a prior probability with one or more pieces of evidence using Bayes theorem.1 finding
Why it is in this group
- The name "bayes_update" says "update": a word for a change.
- The server marks it read-only (readOnlyHint: true), but an annotation never lowers a class.
Findings
- Warn
  The server marks "bayes_update" read-only (readOnlyHint: true), and its own name, description or input give the class "write".
  Matched text
  annotations: {"readOnlyHint":true,"destructiveHint":false,"openWorldHint":false}; The name "bayes_update" says "update": a word for a change.
  What this check looks for
Description, as the server wrote it
Update a prior probability with one or more pieces of evidence using Bayes theorem. Given a prior and a list of evidence items (each with P(evidence | true) and P(evidence | false)), returns the posterior probability and the per-step chain. Use for "update my estimate with new information", "posterior probability", "how does this news change the odds".
Annotations the server declares
- readOnlyHint: true
- destructiveHint: false
- openWorldHint: false
- title: Bayesian Probability Update
calculate_evUse for "is this contract mispriced" and "what is my edge".No findings
Why it is in this group
- Nothing in its name or description says what it does, so it is counted as a write.
- The server marks it read-only (readOnlyHint: true), but an annotation never lowers a class.
Description, as the server wrote it
Use for "is this contract mispriced" and "what is my edge". Give a Kalshi or Polymarket price in cents and your own probability; returns the % expected-value edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read.
Annotations the server declares
- readOnlyHint: true
- destructiveHint: false
- openWorldHint: false
- title: Calculate EV Edge
convert_probabilityConvert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds.1 finding
Why it is in this group
- The name "convert_probability" says "convert": a word for a change.
- The server marks it read-only (readOnlyHint: true), but an annotation never lowers a class.
Findings
- Warn
  The server marks "convert_probability" read-only (readOnlyHint: true), and its own name, description or input give the class "write".
  Matched text
  annotations: {"readOnlyHint":true,"destructiveHint":false,"openWorldHint":false}; The name "convert_probability" says "convert": a word for a change.
  What this check looks for
Description, as the server wrote it
Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back (American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200). Use for "what is +150 as a probability", "convert 62% to American odds", "decimal to implied odds".
Annotations the server declares
- readOnlyHint: true
- destructiveHint: false
- openWorldHint: false
- title: Convert Probability / Odds
edge_alertsUse for "any edge on Kalshi" and "weather trade signals".No findings
Why it is in this group
- Nothing in its name or description says what it does, so it is counted as a write.
- The server marks it read-only (readOnlyHint: true), but an annotation never lowers a class.
Description, as the server wrote it
Use for "any edge on Kalshi" and "weather trade signals". Our model alerts on Kalshi — weather, bitcoin/silver/gold/oil, mispricings — with feed, tier, side, price, model probability, edge and link. Real time with Pro; free is delayed 24h without the thesis. One identical, impersonal feed for every subscriber; filters only select. Informational, not investment advice.
Annotations the server declares
- readOnlyHint: true
- destructiveHint: false
- openWorldHint: true
- title: Edge Alerts (weather / commodity / mispricing)
kelly_sizeCompute the optimal Kelly position size for a prediction-market contract.No findings
Why it is in this group
- Nothing in its name or description says what it does, so it is counted as a write.
- The server marks it read-only (readOnlyHint: true), but an annotation never lowers a class.
Description, as the server wrote it
Compute the optimal Kelly position size for a prediction-market contract. Given your win probability, the market price (which sets the payout), your bankroll, and a Kelly fraction (full / half / quarter / eighth), returns the dollar stake and a risk rating. Use for "how much should I stake", "what is my position size", "Kelly sizing for this trade".
Annotations the server declares
- readOnlyHint: true
- destructiveHint: false
- openWorldHint: false
- title: Kelly Position Size
weather_boardUse for "Kalshi NYC high temperature odds".No findings
Why it is in this group
- Nothing in its name or description says what it does, so it is counted as a write.
- The server marks it read-only (readOnlyHint: true), but an annotation never lowers a class.
Description, as the server wrote it
Use for "Kalshi NYC high temperature odds". Every open Kalshi daily-high strike in 13 cities: YES price, settlement station and source, the strict-comparison rule, close time, and the NWS forecast high beside it. Pass city ("nyc", "KXHIGHCHI"). Market data only.
Annotations the server declares
- readOnlyHint: true
- destructiveHint: false
- openWorldHint: true
- title: Kalshi Weather Board — daily-high strikes vs the NWS forecast

This is not a safety rating, and no finding is not a safety guarantee. The groups and findings come from fixed checks of the tool definitions the server returned on the date shown, not from its code or what it does when called. How the checks work.

Install

Pinned to version 1.2.0. Values in angle brackets are yours to fill in.

claude mcp add --transport http weather https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry

Run in a terminal.

Claude Code permissions

Allow the reads, ask before a change, deny the deletes. Paste into .claude/settings.json.

.claude/settings.json

{
  "permissions": {
    "allow": [],
    "ask": [
      "mcp__weather__weather_board",
      "mcp__weather__edge_alerts",
      "mcp__weather__convert_probability",
      "mcp__weather__base_rate_gap",
      "mcp__weather__bayes_update",
      "mcp__weather__calculate_ev",
      "mcp__weather__kelly_size"
    ],
    "deny": []
  }
}

Tools that only read are allowed, tools that change things ask first, tools that delete or cancel are denied. It assumes the server is installed as weather. Review it before you use it.

Keep track

Get told when this server's tools change: a new tool, a new description, a new class.

https://anlyon.dev/servers/com.predictionmarketspicks/weather/changes.xml

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Source: MCP Registry · repository. Synced Oct 21, 2026, 18:00 UTC.

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