Macro & Commodities Desk

by predictionmarketspicks.com · remote · no sign-in to list tools · v1.2.0 · published by com.predictionmarketspicks

Kalshi macro: Fed rate odds, gold, silver, oil and bitcoin edges, 15-min markets, Kelly sizing.

Changes · 10

Compare Registry entry

10 tools: 10 change things.

Scanned Oct 21, 2026

Deletes or cancels0Claude Code: deny
Can't be undone0Claude Code: ask
Changes things10Claude Code: ask: see these tools
Only reads0Claude Code: allow

1 check matched something in the tool definitions. No finding is not a safety guarantee. How the checks work.

claude mcp add --transport http commodities https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-commodities/mcp?via=registry

Findings

Matches of fixed checks, with the text they matched.

1 warn

Warnconvert_probability
The server marks "convert_probability" read-only (readOnlyHint: true), and its own name, description or input give the class "write".
Matched text
annotations: {"readOnlyHint":true,"destructiveHint":false,"openWorldHint":false}; The name "convert_probability" says "convert": a word for a change.
What this check looks for

Tools

Open a tool for its reasons and full description. Descriptions are the publisher's own words, shown as they are.

10 tools

Changes things 10Creates or changes something that can be changed back.Claude Code: ask

base_rate_gapUse for "how does this price compare to history" and "is the market ignoring the base rate".No findings
Why it is in this group
- Nothing in its name or description says what it does, so it is counted as a write.
- The server marks it read-only (readOnlyHint: true), but an annotation never lowers a class.
Description, as the server wrote it
Use for "how does this price compare to history" and "is the market ignoring the base rate". Compares a market price with the historical base rate for a class of events: the gap in pp, a signal, and sample-size quality. Pass a known baseRateId (the parameter lists them) or your own baseRateValue.
Annotations the server declares
- readOnlyHint: true
- destructiveHint: false
- openWorldHint: false
- title: Base Rate Gap
calculate_evUse for "is this contract mispriced" and "what is my edge".No findings
Why it is in this group
- Nothing in its name or description says what it does, so it is counted as a write.
- The server marks it read-only (readOnlyHint: true), but an annotation never lowers a class.
Description, as the server wrote it
Use for "is this contract mispriced" and "what is my edge". Give a Kalshi or Polymarket price in cents and your own probability; returns the % expected-value edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read.
Annotations the server declares
- readOnlyHint: true
- destructiveHint: false
- openWorldHint: false
- title: Calculate EV Edge
commodity_edgeUse for "gold edge today" and "oil or bitcoin trade signal".Reads text others writeNo findings
Why it is in this group
- Nothing in its name or description says what it does, so it is counted as a write.
- The server marks it read-only (readOnlyHint: true), but an annotation never lowers a class.
What it can reach
- untrusted-inputThe server marks it openWorldHint: true: it reaches things outside the server's own data.
Description, as the server wrote it
Use for "gold edge today" and "oil or bitcoin trade signal". The Kalshi daily gold, silver or WTI strike, or hourly bitcoin strike, with the largest PMP model edge, as a ticket: side, entry price, resolve criterion, model probability, edge, tier and quarter-Kelly size. Pass tickers[] to check a watchlist. Pro — sign in with PredictionMarketsPicks, or a Pro API key.
Annotations the server declares
- readOnlyHint: true
- destructiveHint: false
- openWorldHint: true
- title: Commodity Edge (Gold / Silver / Oil / Bitcoin)
convert_probabilityConvert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds.1 finding
Why it is in this group
- The name "convert_probability" says "convert": a word for a change.
- The server marks it read-only (readOnlyHint: true), but an annotation never lowers a class.
Findings
- Warn
  The server marks "convert_probability" read-only (readOnlyHint: true), and its own name, description or input give the class "write".
  Matched text
  annotations: {"readOnlyHint":true,"destructiveHint":false,"openWorldHint":false}; The name "convert_probability" says "convert": a word for a change.
  What this check looks for
Description, as the server wrote it
Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back (American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200). Use for "what is +150 as a probability", "convert 62% to American odds", "decimal to implied odds".
Annotations the server declares
- readOnlyHint: true
- destructiveHint: false
- openWorldHint: false
- title: Convert Probability / Odds
fed_rate_oddsUse for "will the Fed cut, hold or hike" and "next FOMC meeting odds".No findings
Why it is in this group
- Nothing in its name or description says what it does, so it is counted as a write.
- The server marks it read-only (readOnlyHint: true), but an annotation never lowers a class.
Description, as the server wrote it
Use for "will the Fed cut, hold or hike" and "next FOMC meeting odds". Live Kalshi odds for each remaining 2026 FOMC meeting: the next meeting's full strike breakdown and days-until, the rate path, the current fed funds rate, and a next-meeting cross-venue check against Polymarket and CME futures, with the gap in pp.
Annotations the server declares
- readOnlyHint: true
- destructiveHint: false
- openWorldHint: false
- title: Fed Rate Odds (FOMC)
fifteen_min_boardUse for "what is the ETH 15-minute market doing" and "which Kalshi 15-minute markets are open".Reads text others writeNo findings
Why it is in this group
- Nothing in its name or description says what it does, so it is counted as a write.
- The server marks it read-only (readOnlyHint: true), but an annotation never lowers a class.
What it can reach
- untrusted-inputThe server marks it openWorldHint: true: it reaches things outside the server's own data.
Description, as the server wrote it
Use for "what is the ETH 15-minute market doing" and "which Kalshi 15-minute markets are open". Every Kalshi 15-minute up-or-down series — crypto, metals, energy, FX — with window status, YES price, close time, target price, what it settles on and the up rate over the last 96 windows, plus the same window on Polymarket (international) for BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP with each venue's settlement index, and our Bitcoin top-of-hour rule (WATCH mode). Pass series ("eth", "KXBTC15M") or asset_class.
Annotations the server declares
- readOnlyHint: true
- destructiveHint: false
- openWorldHint: true
- title: Kalshi 15-Minute Markets — every series, live
kelly_sizeCompute the optimal Kelly position size for a prediction-market contract.No findings
Why it is in this group
- Nothing in its name or description says what it does, so it is counted as a write.
- The server marks it read-only (readOnlyHint: true), but an annotation never lowers a class.
Description, as the server wrote it
Compute the optimal Kelly position size for a prediction-market contract. Given your win probability, the market price (which sets the payout), your bankroll, and a Kelly fraction (full / half / quarter / eighth), returns the dollar stake and a risk rating. Use for "how much should I stake", "what is my position size", "Kelly sizing for this trade".
Annotations the server declares
- readOnlyHint: true
- destructiveHint: false
- openWorldHint: false
- title: Kelly Position Size
market_pulseThe US macro-health composite (0–100) and regime plus the six category scores (growth, labor, inflation, rates, liquidity, sentiment).Reads text others writeNo findings
Why it is in this group
- Nothing in its name or description says what it does, so it is counted as a write.
- The server marks it read-only (readOnlyHint: true), but an annotation never lowers a class.
What it can reach
- untrusted-inputThe server marks it openWorldHint: true: it reaches things outside the server's own data.
Description, as the server wrote it
The US macro-health composite (0–100) and regime plus the six category scores (growth, labor, inflation, rates, liquidity, sentiment). Returns the composite, the regime call and 2 category scores without an account, 4 to a signed-in account, and all six with Pro. Use for "how is the US economy", "macro regime", "risk-on or risk-off".
Annotations the server declares
- readOnlyHint: true
- destructiveHint: false
- openWorldHint: true
- title: Market Pulse — Macro
perp_liquidationUse for "where does a 5x bitcoin long liquidate on Kalshi".Reads text others writeNo findings
Why it is in this group
- Nothing in its name or description says what it does, so it is counted as a write.
- The server marks it read-only (readOnlyHint: true), but an annotation never lowers a class.
What it can reach
- untrusted-inputThe server marks it openWorldHint: true: it reaches things outside the server's own data.
Description, as the server wrote it
Use for "where does a 5x bitcoin long liquidate on Kalshi". Estimates a Kalshi perp's liquidation price and the % move to it from Kalshi's risk parameters (a 5x BTC long is about 8% away, not the 20% the 100÷leverage rule implies), plus fees and expected funding. An estimate; Kalshi's app shows the exact one. Assets: btc, eth, sol, xrp, doge, hype, link, gold, silver, platinum, palladium. Free.
Annotations the server declares
- readOnlyHint: true
- destructiveHint: false
- openWorldHint: true
- title: Kalshi Perp Liquidation — where a leveraged position gets closed out
perps_boardUse for "Kalshi perps funding rate" and "how much leverage on Kalshi gold perps".Reads text others writeNo findings
Why it is in this group
- Nothing in its name or description says what it does, so it is counted as a write.
- The server marks it read-only (readOnlyHint: true), but an annotation never lowers a class.
What it can reach
- untrusted-inputThe server marks it openWorldHint: true: it reaches things outside the server's own data.
Description, as the server wrote it
Use for "Kalshi perps funding rate" and "how much leverage on Kalshi gold perps". Every Kalshi perpetual future: price, 24h volume, open interest, max leverage long and short, funding cadence, and what funding has cost a long since launch. Pass asset ("btc", "gold") for one.
Annotations the server declares
- readOnlyHint: true
- destructiveHint: false
- openWorldHint: true
- title: Kalshi Perps Board — price, leverage and funding for every perp

This is not a safety rating, and no finding is not a safety guarantee. The groups and findings come from fixed checks of the tool definitions the server returned on the date shown, not from its code or what it does when called. How the checks work.

Exfil surface

Which tools read private data, which read text someone else can write, and which can send data out. One of each is a path a prompt injection can use.

No private-data, untrusted-input, outbound path in this server alone: no tool is tagged private-data or outbound.

Reads private data0: Reads files, mail, messages, databases, secrets, calendars or repositories.
Reads text others write5: Brings in text someone else can write: web pages, inbound email, messages, issues and comments.; commodity_edge
fifteen_min_board
market_pulse
perp_liquidation
perps_board
Can send data out0: Can carry data to people or systems: it sends, posts or publishes, or takes a recipient, channel or URL.

Other servers in the same agent add their own tools to these paths. Audit your whole setup to see them together.

Remote posture

What anyone on the internet sees at the remote endpoint: an anonymous initialize and tools/list, and the public OAuth metadata.

Looked at Oct 22, 2026, 14:38 UTC, unchanged since Oct 22, 2026. No credentials were sent and no tool was called. What is looked at.

Reachable: yes
HTTP status of an anonymous initialize: 200
tools/list served without credentials: yes
Tools that change things, listed without credentials: 10
Protocol version: 2025-06-18
WWW-Authenticate on 401: not observed
resource_metadata in WWW-Authenticate: none
RFC 9728 protected resource metadata: none
Authorization servers: none
Legacy HTTP+SSE transport: no
Dynamic client registration: not observed
Client ID metadata documents: not observed

WarnThe whole server
The endpoint served tools/list without credentials, and the list has 10 tools that change things (10 write). Whether a call also works without credentials was not tested: tools are never called.
Matched text
https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-commodities/mcp?via=registry: tools/list returned 10 tools to an anonymous client, including fifteen_min_board (write), perps_board (write), perp_liquidation (write), commodity_edge (write), market_pulse (write) and 5 more
What this check looks for

Install

Pinned to version 1.2.0. Values in angle brackets are yours to fill in.

claude mcp add --transport http commodities https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-commodities/mcp?via=registry

Run in a terminal.

Claude Code permissions

Allow the reads, ask before a change or a way out, deny the deletes. Paste into .claude/settings.json.

.claude/settings.json

{
  "permissions": {
    "allow": [],
    "ask": [
      "mcp__commodities__fifteen_min_board",
      "mcp__commodities__perps_board",
      "mcp__commodities__perp_liquidation",
      "mcp__commodities__commodity_edge",
      "mcp__commodities__market_pulse",
      "mcp__commodities__fed_rate_odds",
      "mcp__commodities__base_rate_gap",
      "mcp__commodities__convert_probability",
      "mcp__commodities__calculate_ev",
      "mcp__commodities__kelly_size"
    ],
    "deny": []
  }
}

Tools that only read are allowed, tools that change things ask first, tools that delete or cancel are denied. A read that can send data out (it takes a URL, say) asks first too. It assumes the server is installed as commodities. Review it before you use it.

Capability tags behind 5 rules

mcp__commodities__fifteen_min_board untrusted-input
mcp__commodities__perps_board untrusted-input
mcp__commodities__perp_liquidation untrusted-input
mcp__commodities__commodity_edge untrusted-input
mcp__commodities__market_pulse untrusted-input

Keep track

Get told when this server's tools change: a new tool, a new description, a new class.

https://anlyon.dev/servers/com.predictionmarketspicks/commodities/changes.xml

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Anlyon alternative

10 of these tools change something. Run those as governed actions.

Declare what an action changes, and Anlyon puts it under a shared limit, binds every approval to the exact request, and grades the outcome. It works on any HTTPS API you can describe as an action.

Anlyon does not run, proxy or govern this MCP server. A tool your own code calls directly is not routed through Anlyon and is not governed by it.

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Source: MCP Registry · repository. Synced Oct 21, 2026, 18:00 UTC.

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